Flashpoints to War or Peace

Four years ago, on Aug. 26, 2021, a suicide bomber entered the thronging, panicking Afghans massed outside Abbey Gate at the Kabul, Afghanistan airport. The Biden administration had suddenly announced the abandonment of U.S. citizens, military equipment, allies, and friends, sacrificing 20 years of blood and treasure on the altar of feckless foreign policy. The coup de grâce was the detonation of a madman that killed 13 U.S. servicemembers and 169 civilians.

The world watched in horror. Vladimir Putin watched in fascination.

It was the flashpoint that ended U.S. presence in Afghanistan. It was also the flashpoint that launched the war in Ukraine.

Historians will look back on Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and examine all the reasons why – the geopolitical premises, the cultural and historical tensions, the demographics and economies of Russia and Ukraine. But those were not the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back.

Every war has a flashpoint, a moment in time that creates the make-or-break moment. The Ukraine War is no different, and its flashpoint occurred exactly four years ago this week, sending shockwaves around the world. Putin found his immoral clarity to cross the line from peace to war because of the Biden administration’s debacle pullout from Afghanistan.

The moment Biden’s team sacrificed 13 of its own was shocking and awful, a sign that the U.S. was (at that point) not operating in strength, nor caring for the fate of others. Putin knew that the U.S. under Biden would falter if he attacked Ukraine.

Just before the Afghanistan pullout, Russia had pulled troops away from the Ukrainian border. Within weeks of the Abbey Gate bombing, Russian and Belarusian troops massed for joint exercises near the Ukrainian border. Nearly six months to the day after Abbey Gate was bombed, Russia invaded. Afghanistan was the flashpoint that launched the war in Ukraine.

Flashpoints happen. How they are handled makes all the difference, and that difference is a question of leadership.

The assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand started WWI, with the sinking of the Lusitania – killing 128 Americans – prompting U.S. entry into the conflict. The flashpoint for the Spanish-American War in Cuba was the sinking of the U.S.S. Maine in Havana Harbor. The attack on Pearl Harbor instigated WWII. The flashpoint for the Global War on Terror was 9/11.

But are there times when a flashpoint is mitigated without it escalating fully? Yes. If leaders actually lead.

In October 1962, the world stood on the brink of the Cold War getting very hot as the Soviet Union attempted to put nuclear missiles a stone’s throw from our southern waters. President John F. Kennedy stared down that situation with resolve. Had Kennedy blinked, equivocated, or tried to appease the Soviets for even one second, enough nuclear weaponry would have been permanently stationed off U.S. shores with the capability to wipe half of America off the map within minutes of launch. The Cuban Missile Crisis. A flashpoint in time. Leadership made the difference. War was avoided.

Another flashpoint anniversary this month is the one that nearly ignited a second war on the Korean peninsula. The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) between South and North Korea is a buffer between the two countries, which hate each other. South Korean and U.S. troops have guarded the DMZ since the Korean War ceasefire. But tensions remained high. The Joint Security Area (JSA), where both U.S./South Korean and North Korean troops have a presence, is the only site for interaction between the two hostile sides.

On Aug. 18, 1976, Captain Arthur Bonifas was leading a group of U.S. and South Korean soldiers for the simple purpose of trimming a tree that blocked American observation posts in the DMZ. North Korean troops confronted the U.S.-led group, claiming that the tree was “personally planted and nourished by Kim Il Sung.” Undeterred, the Americans resumed their work. 

The larger group of North Korean soldiers then shockingly attacked the American and South Korean soldiers near the tree, literally hacking and bludgeoning Captain Bonifas and one of his lieutenants to death. The North Koreans said the Americans “attacked our guards en masse… wielding murderous weapons.” Tension was palpable. The world was staring at a conflict that could draw in China and the Soviet Union. President Gerald Ford was faced with a flashpoint. Equivocation or indecisiveness would embolden North Korea. War was imminent. 

Ford knew that America was jaded from Vietnam. But he also knew that flashpoints happen, and doing nothing could be worse. So he faced it head-on. 

Three days later, “Operation Paul Bunyan,” a plan promoted and authorized by Ford, was launched.  A large contingent of armed U.S. and South Korean troops entered the JSA with U.S. Army Cobra attack helicopters on the horizon. B-52 bombers and F-4 Phantoms flew overhead, and the U.S.S. Midway task force steamed offshore. Two hundred North Korean soldiers rushed into the area and began setting up machine gun positions. The Americans cut down the tree and left a 10-foot stump as a reminder for the North Koreans. Throughout it all the North Koreans watched the tree cutting in silence and never fired a shot. Kim Il Sung had backed down. Several hours later, the North Korean leadership issued a formal regret, which is like an almost-apology. 

Flashpoints happen. The world is a crazy place filled with things that most of us never even know about. At any given time, a madman, an assassin, a crisis, a pandemic, can arise and set everything on edge. Sometimes those moments are the flashpoint in a geographical area, or in the middle of a competing interest or historical grievance. 

What matters in determining whether a flashpoint leads to peace or war is leadership. Real leadership. Leadership that has been tested and proven worthy for such a time as that. 

JFK stared down the Soviets. Ford stared down the North Koreans. Biden caused the war in Ukraine. 

Flashpoints happen. Leadership matters.